A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Both authors two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
